Shi Yinhong was born in 1951 and obtained BA, MA and PhD degrees from Nanjing University. He has been a Professor in the School of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing since 2001. He is also the Head of Renmin University’s American Studies Centre and a Consultant to the Chinese Government State Council. His areas of expertise include the theory and history of international relations, China/US foreign policy and strategy, and East Asian security. He has published many books, some of which have been translated into English.

Professor Shi published an article on the 爱思想 website on 9th September 2021 entitled “The International Situation: Differences Between the Two Sides in the Short and Medium Term and the Long-Term Trend” (“世界格局：彼此歧异的短中期状态与长期趋势”). I set out below a short summary of his article, followed by my own comments.

I found this article particularly interesting because it was published just a few days before the announcement of the ‘AUKUS’ agreement between the US, Australia and the UK on 15th September, pursuant to which the US replaced France as the supplier of nuclear powered submarines to Australia. That agreement caused a serious rift in relations between the signatory parties and France. It seems very unlikely that Professor Shi was aware the AUKUS agreement would be announced when he wrote his article. However, the contents of his article in my view help to explain both why the AUKUS agreement came into existence and also why the French are so upset about it. I will discuss that further in my comments below, following the summary.

Brief summary of article

Professor Shi’s article is focussed on the global strategic balance between China, the US, their respective allies and the rest of the world. He believes the policies of the Biden administration, together with the impact of the Covid 19 pandemic, are promoting confrontation and competition between the United States and China and their respective allies. He frankly outlines the forces ranged against China, including Japan, India, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. He lays particular stress on France, saying that while the UK, Germany and France have all stated they plan to make a display of military force in the South China Sea during 2021, France’s policy is ‘the most vigorous’. He notes that the French sent their nuclear powered submarine Emerald through the South China Sea in February 2021. As part of “Mission Jeanne d’Arc 2021” they also sent their amphibious assault ship FS Tonnerre and its escort frigate Surcouf through ‘waters claimed by Beijing’ twice during the course of this year. Those ships also participated in joint naval exercises with the four members of the ‘QUAD’ alliance, the US, India, Australia and Japan, during August. The author quotes Japan’s Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi as saying that “France is the only country that has had a prolonged military presence in the Indo-Pacific area and is also a country that shares with Japan its commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region”.

The author goes on to point out that the European Union and its most important members currently share a similar position with the United States on most of the issues dividing China and the west, including Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, trade disputes and industrial policy, high-technology ‘decoupling’ and containment, supply chain reconstruction, ideological competition, allegations of cyber-attacks and also their demand for an independent investigation into the sources of Covid-19. The position of EU members in relation to China is basically one of opposition and competition, but at a slightly lower level of intensity than the position of the US and its ‘maritime allies’ (the author does not specify who these allies are, but he is presumably referring to the UK, Japan and Australia in particular).

After his rather downbeat review of the strategic forces ranged against China, the author goes on to identify the countries he sees as China’s own allies. He mentions in particular Russia, Iran and North Korea. He notes in relation to North Korea that denuclearisation no longer appears to be a fundamental part of Chinese policy towards the country.

Long-Term Trend

Professor Shi then sets out his views on the likely long-term trend in the global strategic situation. He predicts that the world will divide between the US and China and their respective close allies, with the rest of the world adopting a ‘neutral’ position between the US and Chinese dominated blocs. He says that countries in the latter group will adopt policies that suit their particular interests but will not identify themselves closely with either of the two main blocs.

It is interesting that the author again singles out France as a likely member of this ‘neutral’ group. He refers to an interview President Macron gave to a French journalist in November 2020, in which Macron said that every member state of the European Union should seek to become “independent of the United States” in relation to defence and financial matters. He also said: “The United States will only respect us if we take seriously our defence and our independent sovereignty”. The author then adds that “highly ambitious Europeans like Macron” have identified an opportunity “to fill a leadership vacancy [i.e., in the large grouping of ‘neutral’ countries] and challenge both Beijing and Washington”.

My Comments on the Article

As I mentioned above, Professor Shi’s article was published just a few days before the AUKUS agreement between the US, Australia and UK was announced on 15th September. I was actually reading the article when the reports of the AUKUS agreement came out and I was struck by how prophetic it was. Bearing in mind that Professor Shi is a long-standing Chinese expert in global strategy and a consultant to the China’s State Council, it is quite likely that the Chinese government shares his view that France has played a leading role in challenging China in the Indo-Pacific region. The French are no doubt well aware of that as well. It is therefore not at all surprising that President Macron and his government were so angry about the AUKUS agreement being concluded behind their back.

On the other hand, the fact that the US and UK were prepared to enter into the AUKUS agreement knowing that the French would be very upset about it, suggests that they both believe France is likely to play the ‘neutral’ role between China and the US that Professor Shi describes in his outline of the long-term trend. It is also likely that the UK wishes to be one of the US’s close allies in the US dominated anti-China block. Australia clearly sees itself as another of those allies, so it makes sense in a way that they jointly decided to ‘ditch’ France.

I half wondered whether the Chinese government (and Professor Shi) were already aware that the AUKUS agreement was about to be announced when this article was published. That seems very unlikely given that the French were clearly not aware of it, but it cannot be beyond the realm of possibility.

Link to the original article: https://m.aisixiang.com/data/128476.html

Michael ingle – michaelingle01@gmail.com

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